The Average Directional Index (ADX) was developed by J. Welles Wilder to
evaluate the strength of a trend and to define a period of sideway trading. For
better results from the signals generated by technical analysis,
many traders use ADX to determine whether the market is trending or trading
(moving sideways) and adjust their indicators' settings to the current market
condition. As a result, dynamic
trading systems that use Average
Directional Index as one of their indicators are considered to deliver better
results.
The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100, although readings
above 60 are relatively rare. In technical analysis, an ADX is compared to two
levels:
ADX readings below 20 indicate a weak trend;
ADX readings above 40 indicate a strong trend.
The Average Directional Index does not indicate whether a trend is Bullish or
Bearish, it cannot recognize an up- or down-trend. Thus, a reading above 40 can
indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend. However, an ADX
delivers valuable information about changes in the strength of a trend and can
be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending.
When the ADX begins to strengthen by moving above 20 after having been below
this level, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and that a trend is
developing. When the ADX weakens and drops below 40 after having been above that
level, it is a sign that the current trend is losing strength and a trading
range may develop.
The ADX is derived from two other indicators, also developed by Wilder, called
the Positive Directional Indicator (sometimes written DI+) and the Negative
Directional Indicator (DI-). The ADX calculations are somewhat complex and can
be handled in several stages:
Define Directional Movement Indicator, where +DM
is a positive directional Movement indicator and -DM is a
negative directional movement indicator.
Define the delta extreme price changes
from previous bar:
If today's range is entirely within
yesterday's range, or if the ranges are the same, there has been no directional
movement:
if ([Delta High] < 0) and ([Delta Low] < 0) or
[Delta High]=[Delta Low] then [+DM]=0 and [-DM]=0
If the range has moved upward, there
has been a positive directional move:
if ([Delta High] > [Delta Low]) then [+DM+=[Delta High] and [-DM]=0
If the range has moved downward, there
has been a negative directional move:
if ([Delta High] < [Delta Low]) then [+DM]=0 and [-DM]=[Delta Low]
Calculate the Average Directional Movement Indicator, where
the +ADM is the Average Positive Direction Movement Indicator
for N periods and -ADM is the Average Negative Direction
Movement Indicator for N periods:
Calculate the True Range (TR) and the Average True Range
(ATR). See Average
True Range description.
Calculate the Directional index, where +DI
is the average positive directional movement indicator normalized by the average
true range and -DI is the average negative directional movement
indicator normalized by the average true range:
[+DI]
= [+ADM] / ATR * 100
[-DI] =
[-ADM] / ATR * 100
The next step is to calculate the Directional Movement Index (DX).
It is calculated as the ratio of the absolute value of difference of the
directional indices to the sum of the directional indices:
[DX] = (|[+DI] - [-DI]|) / ([+DI] + [-DI]) * 100
Note: If there is no need to calculate the Directional Movement
Index (+DI and -DI), then you can simplify the DX and ADX calculations by
skipping steps #2 and #3. In that case, you can calculate DX by the following
formula:
The last step is to calculate the Average Directional Movement Index
(ADX), where ADX is the result of applying the exponential
moving
average to the Directional Movement Index:
[ADX] = EMA([DX])
The ADX in the Directional Movement system is used to define strong trends.
The higher the ADX value, the stronger is the trend. The technical analysis
rules state that trend following systems can be used when the ADX is above 25.
The use of trend following systems is not recommended when the ADX drops below
20.
Chart 1: S&P 500 -ADX (Average Directional Movement Index)
V. K.
Copyright 2004 - 2010 Highlight Investments Group. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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