SBV Technical Analysis - Trading Volume with Confidence
Simple SBV Trading System Blog
S&P 500 Trading System
Friday, June 18, 2010
+9.5% on the S&P 500
This week SBV chart example is a continuation of previous example on May 14, 2010. In this week's example we use the same settings that were already used - the 15-day SBV(20) S&P 500 (^SPX) chart.
Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV Oscillator and index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 15-day view. 1 bar = 15 minutes. SBV(20)
In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:
Once the SBV indicator has fallen below a negative signal level (the indicator will now show red), we will enter a short position (if we are not already short);
Once the SBV indicator has advanced above a negative signal level (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows red);
Once the SBV indicator has rallied above a positive signal level (the indicator will now show green), we will enter a long position (if we are not already long);
Once the SBV indicator has fallen below a positive signal level (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows green);
Additional Stop Loss Rule - If the SBV had dropped into negative territory and has begun to rise without having hit the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in positive territory, and stay in cash until a new signal appears.
Do the opposite for a long position: if the SBV had moved into positive territory and has begun to decline without having hit the positive signal line, close the long position when the SBV is back in negative territory, and stay in cash until a new signal appears.
Detailed system description with explanation of used rules could be found in our "SBV Trading System" tutorial.
Table 1: Trades based on the 5-rule system.
Time
Motivation
Signal
Index
Profit (points)
5/17/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1124
+11
5/18/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1135
+20
5/19/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1115
-30
5/20/2010
Rule #5
Cash
1085
5/20/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1183
-8
5/21/2010
Rule #5
Cash
1175
5/21/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1183
+6
5/21/2010
Rule #5
Cash
1177
5/24/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1084
+1
5/24/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1085
+30
5/25/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1055
+29
5/26/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1084
-8
5/27/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1092
+8
5/28/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1100
+9
6/1/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1091
-10
6/1/2010
Rule #5
Cash
1081
6/2/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1078
+18
6/3/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1095
+28
6/7/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1067
-14
6/7/2010
Rule #1
Sell Short
1053
-2
6/8/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1055
+15
6/9/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1070
-6
6/10/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1076
+8
6/11/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1084
-15
6/14/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1099
+1
6/14/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1100
-2
6/15/2010
Rule #2
Buy
1102
+13
6/16/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1115
+4
6/17/2010
Rule #5
Cash
1111
6/18/2010
Rule #4
Sell Short
1119
+1
Total:
+108 (+9.5%)
Note: The 20% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time that the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review the history of prior volume surges, including their magnitude (i.e., the level that the SBV indicator reached).
Our charts are unique in that they give traders the opportunity to choose the specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerances. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system that you have created.
Disclaimer:The chart example is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or make or imply any market trend prediction.