- SBV Technical Analysis

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SBV Technical Analysis - Trading Volume with Confidence

Simple SBV Trading System Blog


S&P 500 and SPY trading


Thursday, July 03, 2008

+69 points on the S&P 500

1 point on S&P 500 = $50 on 1 SP E-mini contract
10 point on S&P 500 = $1 on 1 SPY stock
10 points on S&P 500 is about 10-15% on SPY options

This week SBV chart example is based on the 15-day SBV(16) S&P 500 chart.

Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 15-day view. 1 bar = 15 min. SBV(16)
SP 500 Chart

It's Simple and profitable

In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 33% (the indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are not already short);
  2. Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 33% (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows green);
  3. Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 33% (the indicator will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already long);
  4. Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 33% (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows red);
  5. If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is generated. Vise versa for a long position.

Table 1: Trades based on the 5-rule (additional stop-loss rule) system.

Open Trades Closed Trades Profit
(points)
Time Motivation Trade Index Time Motivation Trade Index
06/20/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1330 06/23/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1319 +11
06/23/08 rule #2 Buy 1319 06/23/08 rule #5 Cash 1318 -1
06/24/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1319 06/25/08 rule #5 Cash 1325 -6
06/25/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1326 06/28/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1280 +46
06/28/08 rule #2 Buy 1280 06/30/08 rule #4 Sell 1289 +9
06/30/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1289 07/01/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1280 +9
07/01/08 rule #2 Buy 1280 07/01/08 rule #4 Sell 1262 -18
07/01/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1262 07/01/08 rule #3 Buy to Cover 1270 -8
07/01/08 rule #3 Buy 1270 07/02/08 rule #4 Sell 1282 +12
07/02/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1282 07/03/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1267 +15

Total:  

+69

Note: The 33% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).

Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.

Disclaimer: The chart example is intended for educational purposes only - it does not constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions.

Date Index Timeframe Result Number of Trades
Dec. 26, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +294 points (+31%) 13 "Long" and 12 "Short"
Dec. 19, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +290 points (+30%) 12 "Long" and 12 "Short"
Dec. 12, 2008 S&P 500 10-day +91 points (+11%) 9 "Long" and 8 "Short"
Dec. 5, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +354 points (+36%) 10 "Long" and 10 "Short"
Nov. 28, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +420 points (+43%) 10 "Long" and 9 "Short"
Nov. 21, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +244 points (+20%) 14 "Long" and 10 "Short"
Nov. 14, 2008 Nasdaq 100 10-day +69 points (+5.1%) 5 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Nov. 7, 2008 DJI 30-day +3,137 points (+30%) 5 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Oct. 31, 2008 S&P 500 5-day +42 points (+4.7%) 9 "Long" and 9 "Short"
Oct. 24, 2008 DJI 30-day +3,004 points (+27%) 5 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Oct. 17, 2008 DJI 30-day +2,886 points (+26%) 4 "Long" and 4 "Short"
Oct. 10, 2008 DJI 30-day +2,262 points (+20%) 5 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Oct. 3, 2008 DJI 30-day +958 points (+8.3%) 8 "Long" and 9 "Short"
Sept. 26, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +74 points (+5.8%) 7 "Long" and 7 "Short"
Sept. 19, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +114 points (+9.0%) 6 "Long" and 7 "Short"
Sept. 12, 2008 DJI 30-day +1,232 points (+11%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Sept. 5, 2008 DJI 30-day +734 points (+6.3%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Aug. 29, 2008 DJI 30-day +600 points (+5.2%) 6 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Aug. 22, 2008 DJI 30-day +995 points (+8.7%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Aug. 15, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +41 points (+3.2%) 7 "Long" and 8 "Short"
Aug. 8, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +44 points (+3.5%) 6 "Long" and 7 "Short"
Aug. 1, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +45 points (+3.6%) 4 "Long" and 8 "Short"
July 25, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +28 points (+2.2%) 1 "Long" and 3 "Short"
July 18, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +7 points (+0.0%) 9 "Long" and 5 "Short"
July 11, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +103 points (+7.8%) 4 "Long" and 6 "Short"
July 3, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +69 points (+5.2%) 4 "Long" and 6 "Short"
June 27, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +62 points (+4.4%) 7 "Long" and 6 "Short"
June 20, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +113 points (+8.5%) 4 "Long" and 2 "Short"
June 13, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +108 points (+8.1%) 4 "Long" and 2 "Short"
June 6, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +47 points (+3.4%) 7 "Long" and 10 "Short"
May 30, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +201 points (+15%) 4 "Long" and 3 "Short"
May 23, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +222 points (+16%) 3 "Long" and 4 "Short"
May 16, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +243 points (+18%) 4 "Long" and 3 "Short"
May 9, 2008 NASDAQ 100 10-day +97 points (+5.1%) 10 "Long" and 10 "Short"
May 2, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +31 points (+2.2%) 7 "Long" and 9 "Short"
April 25, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +251 points (+18%) 7 "Long" and 8 "Short"
April 18, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +91 points (+6.6%) 3 "Long" and 3 "Short"
April 11, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +39 points (+3.0%) 4 "Long" and 5 "Short"
April 4, 2008 NASDAQ 100 5-day +93 points (+5.2%) 7 "Long" and 6 "Short"
March 28, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +29 points (+2.1%) 6 "Long" and 7 "Short"
March 20, 2008 S&P 500 5-day +53 points (+4.2%) 3 "Long" and 4 "Short"
March 14, 2008 S&P 500 5-day +77 points (+6.0%) 6 "Long" and 5 "Short"
March 7, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +222 points (+15%) 9 "Long" and 9 "Short"
Feb. 29, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +211 points (+14%) 8 "Long" and 8 "Short"
Feb. 22, 2008 S&P 500 15-day +85 points (+6.4%) 4 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Feb. 15, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +211 points (+15%) 7 "Long" and 7 "Short"
Feb. 8, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +214 points (+14%) 6 "Long" and 6 "Short"
Feb. 1, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +246 points (+17%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Jan. 25, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +330 points (+20%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Jan. 18, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +330 points (+22%) 4 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Jan. 11, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +309 points (+21%) 5 "Long" and 5 "Short"
Jan. 4, 2008 S&P 500 60-day +291 points (+20%) 4 "Long" and 5 "Short"


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7/31/2010 - SV1