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S&P 500:

An Example of a Trading System using the technical analysis based on the SBV Oscillator



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May 23, 2008

+16% in 2 months

This week SBV technical analysis example is a continuation of previous example on May 16, 2008. In this week's example we use 33% signal line.

Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 60-day view. 1 bar = 1 hour. SBV(20)
SP 500 Chart

The chart above shows 2 signal lines: 33% (red line) and 20% (green line). This example clearly illustrate what was mentioned our last week's example: "Higher signal line generates fewer trades" and "Higher signal line generates signal earlier". The 33% line did not generate any signals for the last week and the signal that was generated on May 14, 2008 is now in profit in spite the fact that it was generated somewhat early (a few days before reversal). The blue 20% signal line would generate a signal to sell after the reversal, yet this signal line setting would generate another two signals (sell short and buy) on May 15, 2008.

Below we summarized a few points about using higher a lower signal line:

  • Higher signal line generates signal earlier;
  • Higher signal line generates fewer trades;
  • In average a positive trade generated by the higher signal line would be more profitable than the average trade generated by the lower signal line, yet, keep in mind that the lower signal line may generate more positive trades over the same period of time; 
  • In average a negative trade generated by the higher signal line would have bigger loss than the average negative trade based on the lower signal line, yet, keep in mind that the lower signal may generate more negative trades over the same period of time.

It's Simple and profitable

In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 33% (the indicator will now show red), we enter a short position (if we are not already short);
  2. Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 33% (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows red);
  3. Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 33% (the indicator will now show green), we enter a long position (if we are not already long);
  4. Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 33% (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows green);
  5. If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is generated. Vise versa for a long position.

Table 1: Trades based on the   5-rule (additional stop-loss rule) system.
Open Trades Closed Trades Profit
(points)
Time Motivation Trade Index Time Motivation Trade Index
03/24/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1358 03/31/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1321 +37
03/31/08 rule #2 Buy 1321 04/04/08 rule #4 Sell 1374 +53
04/04/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1374 04/15/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1334 +40
04/15/08 rule #2 Buy 1334 04/21/08 rule #4 Sell 1384 +50
04/21/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1384 04/24/08 rule #5 Cash 1389 -5
05/12/08 rule #2 Buy 1397 05/14/08 rule #4 Sell 1410 +13
05/14/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1410 05/23/08     1376 +34

Total:  

+222

Note: The 33% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).

Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.

Disclaimer: The chart example is intended for educational purposes only and it does not constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions.

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11/20/2008 - SV1