3/19/2010

Today's modest pullback was welcomed by some bullish market observers, suggesting that it was a 'healthy pullback' that the market needed after a stellar run that was in danger of overheating. All in all, the down-move was attributed to a number of catalysts, such as profit taking, options expiration-related adjustments, and a lack of clear, positive catalysts. As of Thursday night, the broad market had been up more than 5% this month, and as noted previously, some of the indexes have seen virtually no down-days yet in March.

There were no economic data releases and few top headlines today, with the exception of the lingering debt crisis in Greece (a favorite among journalists that is pulled out of a hat every now and then). A (bailout) deal for Greece may be unraveling, and the fear of a credit contagion to other European countries has resurfaced. This has boosted the US dollar which has negatively affected commodities and brought weakness notably in oil-related names (such as Dow component Exxon). .

The upcoming, contentious healthcare vote ('Obama care') may also have played a role in today's market weakness. Furthermore, the fact that India's central bank unexpectedly raised rates may have spooked some investors who also heard the rumor the US Fed may raise its discount rate soon.

Perhaps also market-impacting was a poor earnings release from handset maker Palm which reported a greater- than-expected loss and a poor revenue forecast. A number of analysts cut their target price for the company's shares, one suggesting a target as low as zero; the stock tumbled nearly 30% today.

Key economic data for the week starting March 22, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX (Feb): n.a. / 0.0%

Tuesday:
	10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Feb): 5.00M / 5.05M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Feb): -1.0% / -7.2% HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M (Jan): -0.5% / -1.6% RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Mar): 5.0 / 2.0

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Feb): 0.7% / 2.6% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Feb): 0.5% / -1.0% 10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR (Feb): 315K / 309K NEW HOME SALES M/M (Feb): 1.9% / -11.2%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-13: 4560K / 4579K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-20': 450K / 457K

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 F): 5.9% / 5.9% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 F): 0.4% / 0.4% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar F): 73.0 / 72.5

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