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Stock Market Trading
What is Market Timing?
Market timing, trading strategy, trading system, S&P
500, SPY, index trading, buy-and-hold strategy, analysis, market, technical
analysis, fundamental analysis, investors, traders, indexes, charts, buying,
selling.
As soon as you come to the stock market and begin to analyze with the
intention of placing a trade, you are involved in the process of market timing,
no matter what type of analysis you use (technical analysis, fundamental
analysis, or news analysis, etc).
By definition, market timing is considered to be a strategy of making buying or
selling decisions of any financial assets in the market. Basically, market
timing is an attempt to predict (forecast) future market price movements of a
tradable financial asset (stocks, options, commodities, funds, etc).
The price movement forecasting could be based on a variety of financial
information. These may include a market outlook or economic reports, analysis of
financial news and announcements, analysis of patterns on the charts, analysis
of technical and fundamental indicators, investor sentiment analysis, monitoring
of interest rate trends and actions of the Federal Reserve, and overall market
valuation.
The purpose of market timing is to provide investors (traders) with an
opportunity to acquire some certain degree of confidence in possible future
price developments. If we decided to specify the purposes of market timing, we
would have three main objectives: to define periods (moments) that are good for
buying, to define periods (moments) that are good for selling and to recognize
periods when it is better to stay away from trading. The overall reason for a
market timing strategy is to beat the "buy-and-hold" trading strategy, which is
commonly used by funds.
For many investors the ultimate goal is to beat the performance of the main U.S.
indexes – the Dow Jones Industrials (^DJI),
S&P 500 (^SPX), the
Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) and the Russell 2000
(^RUT) indexes. If a trading strategy or trading system cannot outperform these
indexes, there is no reason to use it. In that case, it would be better to
invest in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track indexes -
QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM. By investing in
the index tracking funds, there is no need for fundamental analysis. It is
already done by fund managers (removing weak stocks and adding strong stocks to
an index's basket) and the "buy-and-hold" trading strategy of indexes require no
technical analysis or market timing at all.
An example of the simple "buy-and-hold" index trading strategy for S&P 500 could
be to buy SPY(S&P 500 tracking
stock) whenever the S&P 500 index drops by 5-7%. This strategy doesn’t involve
any analysis and doesn’t rely on market timing. Over longer period of time
(e.g., 10, 15, or 20 years), if a trader is consistent, this strategy should
produce profits, although not necessarily large profits.
Still, in many cases even "buy-and-hold" investors use elements of market
timing. For them, the purpose of market timing is to avoid major price declines.
As a strategy that is opposite to the "buy-and-hold" trading strategy, market
timing is considered to be the main strategy to use to trade the market, when it
comes to short-term trading.
V. K.
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