S&P 500:

An Example of a Trading System using the technical analysis based on the SBV Oscillator


May 16, 2008

+18% in 2 months

This week SBV chart example is a continuation of previous example on April 25, 2008. In this week's example we use 33% signal line.

Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 60-day view. 1 bar = 1 hour. SBV(20)
SP 500 Chart

By comparing the current week example with SBV chart analysis represented on March 28, 2008 we may see that that this week's examples generates fewer signals over similar period of time. We even see that there could be prolonged periods when system can stay in cash (from April 24, 2008 until May 12, 2008). The main difference between these two examples is that the current example uses 33% signal line while the example on March 28 uses 20% signal line.

Below we summarized a few points about using higher a lower signal line:

  • Higher signal line generates signal earlier;
  • Higher signal line generates fewer trades;
  • In average a positive trade generated by the higher signal line would be more profitable than the average trade generated by the lower signal line, yet, keep in mind that the lower signal line may generate more positive trades over the same period of time; 
  • In average a negative trade generated by the higher signal line would have bigger loss than the average negative trade based on the lower signal line, yet, keep in mind that the lower signal may generate more negative trades over the same period of time.

It's Simple and profitable

In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 33% (the indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are not already short);
  2. Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 33% (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows green);
  3. Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 33% (the indicator will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already long);
  4. Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 33% (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows red);
  5. If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is generated. Vise versa for a long position.

Table 1: Trades based on the   5-rule (additional stop-loss rule) system.
Open Trades Closed Trades Profit
(points)
Time Motivation Trade Index Time Motivation Trade Index
03/18/08 rule #2 Buy 1303 03/24/08 rule #4 Sell 1358 +55
03/24/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1358 03/31/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1321 +37
03/31/08 rule #2 Buy 1321 04/04/08 rule #4 Sell 1374 +53
04/04/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1374 04/15/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1334 +40
04/15/08 rule #2 Buy 1334 04/21/08 rule #4 Sell 1384 +50
04/21/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1384 04/24/08 rule #5 Cash 1389 -5
05/12/08 rule #2 Buy 1397 05/14/08 rule #4 Sell 1410 +13

Total:  

+243

Note: The 33% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).

Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.

Disclaimer: The chart example is intended for educational purposes only and it does not constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions.

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