NASDAQ 100:

An Example of a Trading System using the technical analysis based on the SBV Oscillator


May 9, 2008

+5% on the NASDAQ 100

This week SBV chart example is based on the 10-day SBV(24) NASDAQ 100 chart. The NASDAQ 100 technical analysis could be applied to trade QQQQ shares, QQQQ options and NASDAQ e-mini index futures. The NASDAQ 100 analysis could be used to trade the stocks from the index basket that moves along with the index as well, yet, additional stocks analysis could be required.

Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and index reversal points. NASDAQ 100 index. 10-day view. 1 bar = 10 min. SBV(24)
NASDAQ 100 Chart
Click on the image to see full size NASDAQ 100 chart

The trading system below is very simple, yet, it should be adjusted to the personal trading style, selected trading vehicle and risk tolerance. For instance, a trader who wish to generate fewer trades may select higher timeframe or increase the SBV bar period. At the same time riskier trader (wiling to generate more trades) could select lower timeframe or reduce the SBV bar period. Use scrolling feature on our chart (arrow buttons at the left and right bottom of the chart) to scroll back in history and see the behavior of  any technical indicator in the past.

It's Simple and profitable

In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 20% (the indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are not already short);
  2. Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 20% (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows green);
  3. Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 20% (the indicator will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already long);
  4. Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 20% (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows red);
  5. If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is generated. Vise versa for a long position.

The rules mentioned above could be applied for trading the S&P 500, Russell 2000, DOW Jones Industrial and other indexes.

Table 1: Trades based on the 5-rule (additional stop-loss rule) system.
Open Trades Closed Trades Profit
(points)
Time Motivation Trade Index Time Motivation Trade Index
04/25/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1916 04/25/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1909 +7
04/25/08 rule #2 Buy 1909 04/28/08 rule #4 Sell 1931 +22
04/28/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1931 04/29/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1923 +8
04/29/08 rule #2 Buy 1923 04/30/08 rule #4 Sell 1943 +20
04/30/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1943 04/30/08 rule #3 Buy to Cover 1945 -2
04/30/08 rule #3 Buy 1945 04/30/08 rule #4 Sell 1943 -2
04/30/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1943 05/01/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1941 +2
05/01/08 rule #2 Buy 1941 05/02/08 rule #4 Sell 1974 +33
05/02/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1974 05/02/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1980 -6
05/02/08 rule #2 Buy 1980 05/05/08 rule #4 Sell 1977 -3
05/05/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1977 05/05/08 rule #3 Buy to Cover 1973 +4
05/05/08 rule #3 Buy 1973 05/06/08 rule #1 Sell 1962 -11
05/06/08 rule #1 Sell Short 1962 05/06/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1968 -6
05/06/08 rule #2 Buy 1968 05/07/08 rule #4 Sell 1991 +23
05/07/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1991 05/07/08 rule #3 Buy to Cover 1994 -3
05/07/08 rule #3 Buy 1994 05/07/08 rule #4 Sell 1990 -4
05/07/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1990 05/08/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1969 +21
05/08/08 rule #2 Buy 1969 05/08/08 rule #4 Sell 1970 +1
05/08/08 rule #4 Sell Short 1970 05/08/08 rule #2 Buy to Cover 1967 +3
05/08/08 rule #2 Buy 1967 05/09/08 rule #5 Cash 1957 -10

Total:  

+97

The system above is very simple and it is recommended that you incorporate additional rules that suit your personal risk tolerance. For instance, from the table above, you may see that if the system generates a negative trade in many cases the next trade is negative as well and more conservative trader may set a rule to ignore a signal which is generated after negatively closed trade. 

Note: The 20% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).

Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.

Disclaimer: The chart example is intended for educational purposes only – it does not constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions.

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