NASDAQ 100:
An Example of a Trading
System using the technical analysis based on the SBV Oscillator
May 9, 2008
+5% on the NASDAQ 100
This week SBV chart example is based on the 10-day SBV(24)
NASDAQ 100 chart. The NASDAQ 100 technical analysis could be applied to
trade QQQQ shares, QQQQ options and NASDAQ e-mini index futures. The NASDAQ
100 analysis could be used to trade the stocks from the index basket that
moves along with the index as well, yet, additional stocks analysis could be
required.
|
Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and
index reversal points. NASDAQ 100 index. 10-day view. 1 bar =
10 min. SBV(24) |

Click on the image to see full size NASDAQ 100 chart |
The trading system below is very simple, yet, it should be adjusted to the
personal trading style, selected trading vehicle and risk tolerance. For instance, a
trader who wish to generate fewer trades may select higher timeframe or increase
the SBV bar period. At the same time riskier trader (wiling to generate more
trades) could select lower timeframe or reduce the SBV bar period. Use
scrolling feature on our chart (arrow buttons at the left and right bottom of
the chart) to scroll back in history and see the behavior of any technical
indicator in the past.
It's
Simple and profitable
In our trading example, we applied the following
simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:
-
Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 20% (the
indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are
not already short);
-
Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 20% (after having
been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator
still shows green);
-
Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 20% (the indicator
will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already
long);
-
Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 20% (after having
been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator
still shows red);
-
If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without
hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in
the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is
generated. Vise versa for a long position.
The rules mentioned above could be applied for trading the S&P 500, Russell
2000, DOW Jones Industrial and other indexes.
Table 1: Trades based on the 5-rule
(additional stop-loss rule) system.
|
Open Trades |
Closed Trades |
Profit
(points) |
|
Time |
Motivation |
Trade |
Index |
Time |
Motivation |
Trade |
Index |
|
04/25/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1916 |
04/25/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1909 |
+7 |
|
04/25/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1909 |
04/28/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1931 |
+22 |
|
04/28/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1931 |
04/29/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1923 |
+8 |
|
04/29/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1923 |
04/30/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1943 |
+20 |
|
04/30/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1943 |
04/30/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy to Cover |
1945 |
-2 |
|
04/30/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy |
1945 |
04/30/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1943 |
-2 |
|
04/30/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1943 |
05/01/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1941 |
+2 |
|
05/01/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1941 |
05/02/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1974 |
+33 |
|
05/02/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1974 |
05/02/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1980 |
-6 |
|
05/02/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1980 |
05/05/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1977 |
-3 |
|
05/05/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1977 |
05/05/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy to Cover |
1973 |
+4 |
|
05/05/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy |
1973 |
05/06/08 |
rule #1 |
Sell |
1962 |
-11 |
|
05/06/08 |
rule #1 |
Sell Short |
1962 |
05/06/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1968 |
-6 |
|
05/06/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1968 |
05/07/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1991 |
+23 |
|
05/07/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1991 |
05/07/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy to Cover |
1994 |
-3 |
|
05/07/08 |
rule #3 |
Buy |
1994 |
05/07/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1990 |
-4 |
|
05/07/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1990 |
05/08/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1969 |
+21 |
|
05/08/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1969 |
05/08/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1970 |
+1 |
|
05/08/08 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1970 |
05/08/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1967 |
+3 |
|
05/08/08 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1967 |
05/09/08 |
rule #5 |
Cash |
1957 |
-10 |
|
Total: |
+97 |
The system above is very simple and it is recommended that you incorporate additional
rules that suit your personal risk tolerance. For instance, from the table
above, you may see that if the system generates a negative trade in many cases
the next trade is negative as well and more conservative trader may set a rule
to ignore a signal which is generated after negatively closed trade.
Note: The 20% level for the SBV indicator was
determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the
trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical
levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market
situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their
magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).
Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose
specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk
tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our
charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.
| Disclaimer: The chart
example is intended for educational purposes only – it does not
constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend
predictions. |
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