S&P 500:
An Example of a Trading
System using the SBV Oscillator
November 30, 2007
+12.8% on the S&P 500
This week SBV chart example is a
continuation of previous
example on
November 23, 2007
where the last SBV signal was
"Sell Short". In this week's example we use the same settings that were
already used by showing the consistency of our
trading system over the long period of time.
This week SBV chart example is based on the 60-day SBV(20)
S&P 500 chart.
|
Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV oscillator and
index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 60-day view. 1 bar = 1 hour. SBV(20) |
 |
In our trading example, we applied the following
simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:
-
Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 20% (the
indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are
not already short);
-
Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 20% (after having
been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator
still shows green);
-
Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 20% (the indicator
will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already
long);
-
Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 20% (after having
been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator
still shows red);
-
If the SBV dropped into negative territory and started to rise without
hitting the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in
the positive territory, and stay in cash until a new buy signal is
generated. Vise versa for a long position.
Table 1: Trades based on the 4-rule and 5-rule
(additional stop-loss rule) system.
|
Open Trades |
Closed Trades |
Profit
(points) |
|
Time |
Motivation |
Trade |
Index |
Time |
Motivation |
Trade |
Index |
|
10/11/07 |
rule #4 |
Sell Short |
1550 |
10/24/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1510 |
+40 |
|
10/24/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1510 |
10/25/07 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1505 |
-5 |
|
10/25/07 |
rule
#4 |
Sell Short |
1505 |
10/29/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1538 |
-33 |
|
10/29/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1538 |
10/31/07 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1540 |
+2 |
|
10/31/07 |
rule
#4 |
Sell Short |
1540 |
11/06/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1508 |
+32 |
|
11/06/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1508 |
11/07/07 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1490 |
-18 |
|
11/07/07 |
rule
#4 |
Sell Short |
1490 |
11/13/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1465 |
+25 |
|
11/13/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy |
1465 |
11/14/07 |
rule #4 |
Sell |
1485 |
+20 |
|
11/14/07 |
rule
#4 |
Sell Short |
1485 |
11/27/07 |
rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
1415 |
+70 |
|
11/27/07 |
rule
#2 |
Buy |
1415 |
|
1481 |
+66 |
|
Total: |
+199 |
1 point on S&P 500 = $50 on 1 E-mini S&P 500 futures
contract
100 points on S&P 500 = $5,000 on 1 E-mini S&P 500 contract
200 points on S&P 500 = $100,000 on 10 E-mini S&P 500 contracts
Note: The 20% level for the SBV indicator was
determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the
trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical
levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market
situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including their
magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).
Our charts are unique in that they give traders the option to choose
specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk
tolerance. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our
charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system you created.
| Disclaimer: The chart
example is intended for educational purposes only – it does not
constitute trading advice, nor does it make or imply any market trend
predictions. |
More Examples:
|