|
Best Trade Newsletters
"Best
Trade" Newsletter (July 14, 2006)
This "best trade" is a continuation of previous "Best trade" newsletter
posted (sent to MV subscribers) on
July 13, 2006 where we left a QQQQ Call position open.
In the following example, we have based our QQQQ options trades on
NASDAQ 100 advance / decline indicators. Using the principles outlined below,
you may wish to trade options on the SPDRs (SPY), ^SPX, DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1
(DIA), as well as on other underlies that generally tend to move in concert with
the S&P 500 index. It is also conceivable that an analysis similar to the one
shown below could be used to trade options based on the NASDAQ 100, Russell
2000, and other indexes.
For this "Best trade",
"Buy Calls" trade is opened
in order to close them later with profit if the
index moves in our favor.
Below you will find a Table of Trade Motivations and a chart showing the trades,
including detailed trade calculations.
|
Chart 2: |
NASDAQ 100 SBV Oscillator - July, 2006.
|
 |
In Table 1 - a 'Table of Trade Motivators'
- we show the motivating factors that led us to take the above trades.
Table 1: Table of Trade Motivators
|
Date |
Trading
Decision |
Motivation |
|
07/11/06 |
Buy Calls |
High-magnitude buying surges
were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 34.2%,
indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the
previous 10 trading days by 34.2%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 21%, for the
Dow Jones Industrial it was - 16%.
SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that
level back on July 11, 2006 around 11:30 EST (see
NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart
with 240-min VMA). This reveals that the accumulation phase of the buying volume
during July 10, 11, 2006 has finished and there is a big chance of a trend
reversal to a point at which the buying volume accumulated during the last two
days is compensated for at least by a similar accumulation of selling volume. |
|
07/12/06 |
Sell Calls |
SBV oscillator railed above plus 33% and dropped below that
level back on July 12, 2006 around 11:00 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart
with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a short-term
correction down. We found that it was a
safe to close all open calls options and buy puts.
By the end of the session the SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and we left "Buy
Puts" trade opened in order to close it later when SBV Oscillator advance above
minus 33% (NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart with 240-min VMA). |
|
Buy Puts |
|
07/13/06 |
Sell Puts |
High-magnitude buying surges
were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 25.5%,
indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the
previous 10 trading days by 34.2%. The (1/10) PVO for S&P 500 was 25%, for the
Dow Jones Industrial it was - 20%.
The SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that
level back on July 13, 2006 around 11:00 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart
with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a trend
reversal.
We found that it was a
safe to close all open put options and buy calls.
We left "Buy
Calls" trade opened in order to close it later if the index moves in our
favor. |
|
Buy Calls |
|
07/14/06 |
Buy Calls |
The SBV Oscillator dropped below minus 33% and rallied to about that
level back on July 14, 2006 around 10:40 EST (see NASDAQ 100 15-day SBV chart
with 240-min VMA). This reveals that there is a big chance of a trend
reversal.
High-magnitude buying surges
were noted in all market sectors. The NASDAQ 100 (1/10) PVO was 39.3%,
indicating that the volume seen on this day exceeded the average volume over the
previous 10 trading days by 39.3%. The (1/10)
PVO for S&P 500 was 15%, for the
Dow Jones Industrial it was - 16%.
On this day the call we bought on July 13, 2006
dropped in price to $0.90 per contract and we decided to strengthen our position
by buying cheaper then we had bought earlier calls.
We left "Buy
Calls" trade opened in order to close it later if the index moves in our
favor. |
Below we list in detail the actual trades made,
along with the netted returns achieved.
Table 2: Details of the trades
|
Date |
Trade |
Strike |
Expiration |
Contracts |
Contract
Price |
Amount |
|
07/05/2006 |
Buy QQQIL Calls |
$38 |
Sep. 2006 |
70 |
$1.55 |
-$10,850 |
|
07/11/2006 |
Buy QQQIL Calls |
$38 |
Sep. 2006 |
110 |
$1.00 |
-$11,000 |
|
07/12/2006 |
Sell QQQIL Calls |
$38 |
Sep. 2006 |
180 |
$1.05 |
+$18,900 |
|
07/12/2006 |
Buy QQQUK Puts |
$37 |
Sep. 2006 |
120 |
$0.95 |
-$11,400 |
|
07/13/2006 |
Sell QQQUK Puts |
$37 |
Sep. 2006 |
120 |
$1.40 |
+$16,800 |
|
07/13/2006 |
Buy QQQIK Calls |
$37 |
Sep. 2006 |
90 |
$1.30 |
Open Position |
|
07/14/2006 |
Buy QQQIK Calls |
$37 |
Sep. 2006 |
130 |
$0.90 |
Open Position |
|
Total: |
+$2,450 |
©HGH Associated Traders
Important:
The analysis results presented in the "Best Trade" may differ from
the outlook presented in the daily Market Commentaries. Results may also differ
from the trading signals generated for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), or from any
other research and analysis efforts shared with our members. These are products
developed by independent research teams, delivered to MarketVolume® members.
While sharing some research results, these autonomous research teams may use
different systems and may have dissimilar market outlooks.
| Disclaimer: This newsletter is intended
for educational purposes only – it does not constitute trading advice,
nor does it make or imply any market trend predictions. This newsletter illustrates
examples based
principally on MarketVolume® index volume indicators and advance/decline (AD)
indicators. We do not mean to imply that you should follow
our exact trades, but rather wish to suggest that you may make use of our
analytics to develop your own trading style. |
|
2006 (first part) |
|
Date |
Indicator |
|
June 28, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
June 15, 2006 |
QQQQ Options Trading |
|
June 15, 2006 |
Options Trading |
|
May 17, 2006 |
Trading QQQQ Options |
|
May 12, 2006 |
Trading Options |
|
May 11, 2006 |
QQQQ |
|
May 8, 2006 |
QQQQ Trading |
|
April 27, 2006 |
Trading QQQQ |
|
April 26 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
April 18, 2006 |
Trading QQQQ Options |
|
April 17 2006 |
QQQQ Trading |
|
March 29, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
March 28 2006 |
Options Trading |
|
March 14, 2006 |
QQQQ |
|
March 10 2006 |
QQQQ Options Trading |
|
March 8, 2006 |
Trading QQQQ Options |
|
March 3, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
February 28, 2006 |
QQQQ Trading |
|
February 8, 2006 |
Options Trading |
|
February 2, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 31, 2006 |
QQQQ |
|
January 29, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
January 20, 2006 |
QQQQ Options Trading |
|
January 13, 2006 |
QQQQ Options |
|
|
|
|